On January 11, the "showdown over Greenland" was
at a “fateful moment,” Denmark’s prime minister warned, as
President Donald Trump renewed his threat to seize the Arctic island "one
way or the other”….
Trump has insisted that the U.S. must take control of
Greenland to prevent Russia or China from doing the same — an argument Beijing
dismissed as "an excuse" to pursue his territorial ambitions.
“I am not going to let that happen,” Trump told reporters
aboard Air Force One late Sunday of allowing America's geopolitical rivals to
control the vast, mineral-rich territory.
Asked if there was any deal either Greenland or Denmark
could offer to prevent military action, Trump said he would love to make a
deal. “It’s easier,” he said, adding: “But one way or the other, we’re going to
have Greenland.”
Europeans were not amused. Consequently, as of January 16,
they had
begun to complement their strategy of engagement with
deterrence. The idea is to raise the stakes of any forceful U.S. action on
Greenland and demonstrate that annexing the island will not be an easy win, but
have “unprecedented knock-on effects,” as French President Emmanuel Macron put
it. Europeans hope that Trump is just testing the boundaries of how much
resistance he will evoke, and that standing firmly united will make him back
off.
To achieve this, European leaders are working with members
of the U.S. Congress with the hope of future legislation that would make it
more difficult for the president to make a move on Greenland. A bipartisan
congressional delegation currently visiting Denmark and the island is meant to
convey the message that there is no interest whatsoever for a U.S. takeover. In
addition, Europeans are signaling to Congress that the possession of an island
that is much smaller than it appears on the standard Mercator projection map is
not worth the dissolution of NATO.
Europeans are also weighing their economic and military
options to deter Trump’s threat. On the economic side, the use of limited
sanctions, further punitive measures against U.S. tech companies, and the
European Union’s (EU) anti-coercion instrument—which was already considered but
discarded as a response to U.S. tariffs—are back as actions of last resort.
However, Trump’s threat to use tariffs once again over Greenland may discourage
some Europeans for fear of escalation.
On the military side, France, Germany, Norway, and Sweden
have deployed a small number of troops to Greenland to deter a fait accompli
from the U.S. side (and France has proposed sending more). However, Europeans
are fully aware that a military conflict with the United States would be a
disastrous scenario that they will only lose. Other “nuclear options,” like
limiting U.S. access to bases in Europe, are technically available. But this
tactic would assume that the transatlantic relationship is already irreparably
harmed.
Donald Trump heard this loud and clear and after his speech
at Davos, announced on Wednesday that he and NATO Secretary Mark Rutte had
"formed the framework of a future deal with respect to Greenland and, in
fact, the entire Arctic Region."
"One way or another, we're going to have Greenland," the
President had said. Europe called his bluff, and now we've agreed to negotiate.
Yet Glenn Beck, asking "what is the key to what
happened yesterday," holds fast to
his crush, remarking
I can guarantee you he- Donald Trump- or someone said to
Mark, a message from the President, "Mark, you've gotta make this happen,
you've gotta tell the truth and I'm not making a threat. I'm making a promise
to you.
You bet that wasn't a threat, if such a conversation did
actually take place. "One way or
another, we're going to have Greenland," the President earlier had
boasted, Europe countered, and Donald was in no position to make the threat for
a second time.
According to Beck, Trump or his respresentative added
If we don't get Greenland, if this doesn't happen, if we
don't find a way so that we have control over the things that we have to have
control over in Greenland, I'm out of NATO and you won't survive.
If NATO had not survived that, Donald Trump would have been
the assassin and Vladimir Putin the beneficiary. Beck continued
And I won't say that, embarrass NATO, I can't say it aloud
but I'm telling you that this is the end game here. We're out of NATO because
it's worthless. I can guarantee you that's what happened. Everything in me says
that's what happened.
We can't be sure this did not happen, though clearly if it
did, it was not Trump himself. "And I won't say that, embarrass NATO, I
can't say it aloud" is something which never would be uttered by
America's, nay the world's, leading narcissist. If Trump can't be the center of
attention, he can't be anything.
If there had been no
announcement of negotiations, er, uh, a "framework," for a deal,
Glenn Beck and his fellow travelers would have proclaimed it a total victory
for the great dealmaker. President Trump's confrontational style would have
persuaded those awful people across the Atlantic to back down, we would have
been assured.
But that's not what happened. Instead, someone stood up to
the demonic force. As Beck argued, the military might of NATO minus the USA
would not have been able to withstand an onslaught from the USA. However, that
onslaught would have been short-lived, for a reason Beck overlooked..Had there
been an American casualty, Americans would have been out. Death would have been
the key.
After his visit to the White House last March, Bill Maher
pleaded "one good thing about Trump: he really, really doe not like
war." Yet, the President's aversion may be not to war itself, but to the
possibility of Americans dying in battle. Sensitive to public opinion, he is
keenly aware that the instinct to rally around the flag rapidly loses its
appeal once American deaths enter the picture.
In either case, when NATO nations faced President Trump
down, he backed down. His prior bluster was belied by the willingness to talk
and make a deal for what the President could have achieved without the
controversy and distrust his shtick incited. That was no problem for the man
who must always be the center of attention. This will be a problem for allies
and for the United States of America itself.
Oh, Trump will eventually declare victory, in his signature
fashion, exalting himself and deriding others. However, notwithstanding what
Glenn Beck contends, President Trump overplayed his hand. He (apparently)
believed he could and would intimidate Denmark into capitulating to his demand
to turn Greenland over, perhaps for mere pennies on the dollar.
Donald Trump didn't completely capitulate. But he did stand
down and the coalition of the free, here (thus far) and abroad, weakened,
survives for another day.