The Power Of "O"

Craig Garthwaite and Tim Moore of the Department of Economics at the University of Maryland have prepared a study to determine the impact of Oprah Winfrey's endorsement in May, 2007 of Barack Obama for the Democratic nomination for president.

Garthwaite and Moore reviewed areas with high per-capita circulation of Oprah magazine and of high per-capita sales of books in Oprah's Book Club, reasonably assuming that those are areas in which the talk-show host is most popular. They controlled for various other factors and developed several mathematical models. Analyzing both the effect on voter share and on participation, they concluded that the votes for other candidates "slightly increased" as a result of the endorsement and that the effect on voter participation is greater than that on voter share. Turnout increased by approximately 2,196,300 out of a total of 33,386,184 votes cast. (Forty-five states and the District of Columbia were studied- excluded were Michigan, in which Obama and a few other candidates were not on the ballot; Florida, in which alll candidates agreed not to campaign; Kansas, North Dakota, and Alaska , which do not report county-level voter information; and Texas, in which one can vote in a primary and/or caucus, "creating different incentives in voting behavior.")

But as for the main conclusion: the academics concluded that Winfrey's endorsement "was responsible" for 1,015,559 (net) votes for Obama, with a 95% chance that the effect was from 423,123 to 1,596,995.

One million-plus votes out of a total of thirty-three million-plus votes may not sound like that much. But it was extraordinary and, arguably, pivotal in a race won by the now-presumptive nominee by far fewer than one million votes (and won only if Michigan and Florida are not counted, truly a bizarre calculation given that the Rules and Bylaws Committee of the DNC eventually imparted legitimacy to the vote by accepting partial allocation of their delegates). And in the 45 jurisdictions included in the study, Obama gained only 278,966 votes more than chief rival Clinton.

Unfortunately (given the candidates), the researchers argue that the impact of an endorsement is significantly smaller in a general election than in a primary contest, inasumuch as in the latter (and especially in this contest), the ideological positions of the candidates differ relatively little, with voters more concerned with policy positions in the general.

Still, being responsible for the votes of over one million Americans- far more than any other endorsement could be- is truly impressive and remarkable testimony to the influence of America's paramount celebrity. No surprise, though, that John McCain chose to try to tie Barack Obama to Paris Hilton and Britney Spears rather than the woman known by her first name and, to herself, "O."