Nate Silver, who is an excellent analyst of elections played by the rules, believes Donald Trump's chance of remaining President, presumably by winning an election, are less than 1 in 8:
Actually Trump's odds (12%) are quite close to the chances of catching an inside straight (9%), low but still well within the realm of normal things you see in any poker session, and not the much less likely thing you are describing (0.3%).
This is not only advice for the federal courts to steal an election for Donald Trump. This is not dog whistle; this is megaphone. Wen Donald Trump at the first debate advised the Proud Boys to "stand back and stand by," armed white supremacists knew what he was urging. When your neighbor or a professional pundit warns "a rigged election could explode," it's a prediction. When a Supreme Court Justice does so, it's a subtle recommendation.
Surprise! Another powerful Republican doesn't believe all the ballots should be counted.
President Donald Trump’s son-in-law and senior adviser Jared Kushner said Black people must “want to be successful” in order for his father-in-law’s policies to help them.
“One thing we’ve seen in a lot of the Black community, which is mostly Democrat, is that President Trump’s policies are the policies that can help people break out of the problems that they’re complaining about,” Kushner said Monday on “Fox & Friends.” “But he can’t want them to be successful more than they want to be successful.”
In fairness, Jared Kushner's definition of success is using
his dad's name to buy an old office building nobody wants to lease space in and
then using the power of his access to the Presidency to get a bailout from
corrupt emirs in the Persian Gulf.
But as he understands, the primary objection to Kushner's
statement is that it is patronizing. It is patronizing not only because the
president's son-in-law is strongly
implying that blacks don't want to be successful. They're human beings and want to be successful, and it shouldn't be necessary so to inform a president's son-in-law.. Moreover,
"he can't want them to be successful more than...." is daddy wanting
the best for his little children. It'd repugnant.
However, it's not only repugnant, it's Republican (with
apologies to Joe Biden, who wants more than virtually anything not to offend
Republicans). The President will help
blacks, Kushner suggests, only if they want to be successful. If they are poor, working class, or even
upper middle-class, they need not apply. Only if they are successful- read
"rich") is Trump interested.
This attitude is especially prevalent with the Trump
extended family. Nonetheless, it pervades conservative thinking generally.
There is nothing wrong, the feeling goes, with affluent and well-educated blacks. Their success even proves the virtue of capitalism, Republicanism, and the flag.. It's the others many conservatives, even some
moderates/centrists have problems with, which is then attributed to their blackness.
Moreover, Republicans will help those affluent, preferably
wealthy, blacks as they will affluent, preferably wealthy whites. The poor, working-class, even the middle
class can go pound sand. President Trump is the culmination of at least forty
years of GOP rule in this country. In
1976, Elizabeth Drew said Ronald Reagan (not yet president)
lets people get out their anger and frustration, their
feeling of being misunderstood and mishandled by those who have run our
government, their impatience with taxes and with the poor and the weak, their
impulse to deal with the world’s troublemakers by employing the stratagem of a
punch in the nose.
When Ronald Reagan evoked the "welfare queen," it stuck in the imagination of many Americans and has grown into full-bore hostility toward the poor and the weak. Its champions today is Donald Trump but his son-in-law helps clarify the picture of a family that embodies greed on an unprecedented scale.
In my last post, I neglected to address an additional
point in the Trump-Biden debate in which Joe Biden failed to exploit an
infamous remark made by an incumbent President who has been off his game for a
few months now.
The missed opportunity came when Trump claimed (at 51:31)
"they say the stock market will boom if I'm elected. If he's elected, the
stock market will crash" and Biden responded
The idea that the stock market is booming is his only
measure of what's happening. Where I come from, in Scranton and Claymont, the
people don't live off of the stock market. Just in the last three, three years
during this crisis, the billionaires in this country made, according to the
Wall Street, $700 billion more dollars. $700 billion more dollars. Because
that's his only measure. What happens to the ordinary people out there? What
happens to them?
The reference by ol' Middle Class Joe to Scranton, PA. and
Claymont, DE. works. However, if that's Trump's primary measure, as Biden
recognizes, the latter missed an opportunity when he maintained the President
"knew how dangerous it was but he didn't want to tell us, didn't want to
tell us because he didn't want us to panic."
Trump did not tell Bob Woodward that he didn't want his
subjects to panic. He told the
journalist in February "I wanted to always play it down. I still like
playing it down, because I don't want to create a panic."
The President did not then contend he did not want people to
panic, nor even that he did not want to create panic. He did not want to createa panic.
Donald Trump's entire political strategy is centered on
scaring people- on creating panic. Among his golden oldies are: “In Joe Biden’s America, rioters, looters and
criminal aliens have more rights than law-abiding citizens, and that’s true;” “The entire Democratic field supports deadly sanctuary
cities, which release dangerous criminals to terrorize your communities right
here in North Carolina, believe it or not;” and “Every major Democrat running for
president has pledged to eliminate gas-powered automobiles and destroy the U.S.
auto industry forever.”
Yet, when Donald Trump, who has touted stock market
increases throughout his presidency, is caught obsessed with creating a panic,
virtually everyone everywhere assumes he was referring to inciting hysteria.
Maybe he was, given that he often speaks on a sixth grade
level. But maybe he wasn't. And if I'm an election opponent who is emphasizing
that Donald Trump is for people over profits and the stock market over life, I
hope I'd argue that when Donald Trump decided to withhold the truth from
Americans, he was protecting the stock market and not people from Scranton, Steuben, or Saginaw.
Last night, while Donald Trump and Joe Biden were duking it out, the Philadelphia Eagles defeated the New York Giants 222-21. The latter paralleled the former event, with the Eagles in the role of Biden and the Giants in the role of Trump.
There were the Eagles, winners of the Super Bowl only three years ago, now, through a combination of bad college drafts and injuries, fighting hard to defeat putrid rivals (Giants, Washington, and Dallas) in their division. And last night, even though they were once much stronger, they came out ahead, barely, against an (inferior) opponent.
As did Joseph Robinette Biden. Something has happened to Donald Trump the past four years, in part getting older, and in greater part because he is now an incumbent, a role he plays poorly. In 2016, he was the challenger, all vim and vigor, spewing fire and brimstone everywhere, threatening to drain the swamp which he now has reinforced, strengthened, and provides over.
Trump has not been able effectively to denounce American "carnage," as he did four years ago, now that he himself is President. It's even harder when, as in the case of Trump, he barely tries, instead talking about the pandemic in an inevitably failed effort to turn a sow's ear into a silk purse.
That's not to conclude that Donald Trump won't still be President Trump in a year, given widespread and varied GOP voter suppression strategies. But like the New York Giants on Thursday night, he had a chance at a win and tossed it away.
"Pre-existing conditions will always stay," Donald Trump claimed, to which Biden went into a little detail about his health care plan. If John McCain had not cast the deciding vote against repealing the Affordable Care Act 39 months ago, there would be no protection for individuals with pre-existing conditions. If the state Attorneys General succeed in their lawsuit, joined by Donald Trump's personal Justice Department, in the federal court to overturn the ACA, insurance companies likely will end coverage for people with pre-existing conditions. That cannot be emphasized enough by a Democratic candidate but Biden took a pass.
Asked by Trump whether he would "close down the oil industry," Biden replied "by the way, I have a transition from the old industry, yes." That's a bold claim, especially because even the Green New Deal does not contemplate closing down or ending the oil industry in the next four years. Trump tried, but feebly, to make an issue out of this extraordinary admission.
Trump brought up the issue of crime- but, momentarily forgetting that he was not running for the Democratic nomination for President, flogged the former vice-president for being insufficiently dedicated to criminal justice reform. Biden remarked "no one should be going to jail because they have a drug problem. They should be going to rehabilitation, not to jail." Trump responded with "why didn't he do this four years ago?"
Maybe because if someone has drug problem but insists on selling huge amounts of narcotics to someone else with a drug problem, he should go to jail. Or maybe because that person with a drug problem was apprehended while burglarizing a home or assaulting a woman. If Trump wanted to sell that without seeming overly punitive, he could have added "and this is a problem which is harming black families, poor families, especially, and those are the people most opposed to defunding the police, which you support."
Biden has explicitly opposed defunding the police. However, the President could have linked his opponent with a favorite target, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez- and when did the truth ever deter Donald Trump, anyway? It certainly did not stop Trump from claiming, hilariously, "I am the least racist person in this room." Nobody is buying it.
Consider if a criminal has a drug problem while insisting on selling huge amounts of narcotics to someone else with a drug problem, he should go to jail. Or maybe because the person with a drug problem was apprehended while burglarizing a home or assaulting a woman. If Trump wanted to sell that without seeming overly punitive, he could have added "and this is a problem which is harming black families, poor families, especially, and those are the people most opposed to defunding the police, which you support."
Biden has explicitly opposed defunding the police. However, the President could have linked his opponent with a favorite target, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez- and when did the truth ever deter Donald Trump, anyway? It certainly did not stop Trump from claiming, hilariously, "I am the least racist person in this room." Nobody is buying it.
Biden made a few tactically wise points, such as his riff about the empty chair at the kitchen table or the individual missing the spouse because the latter has died of Covid-19. It could have been made a little more eloquently, but the slight awkwardness may have made it seemed even more genuine.
Like the Eagles, Joe Biden had a home field advantage Thursday night. The Eagles were playing in Philadelphia and Joe Biden played on his home field, by the generosity of his opponent. Notwithstanding the 220,000+ deaths from a coronavirus he befriended, Donald Trump could have steered the conversation toward crime and chaos in large American cities, whose voters are overwhelmingly arrayed against him, anyway. Instead, he tried to pose as America's great criminal justice reformer, which, given his rhetoric of the past five years, he wouldn't be able to pull off even if accurate.
Instead, the incumbent dwelt excessively with the pandemic, which he has clearly worsened, and which could emerge only as a plus for an opponent who is nothing if not empathetic. On Thursday evening, the NY Giants faced a fairly weak opponent, and so did Trump. But Donald Trump, like the football team from the New York area, is not what he once was.
By the time most people read this post, the second
presidential debate between Donald Trump and Joe Biden will have presumably
begun and ended and the following will be old news. Still, as someone who has criticized Barack Obama hundreds of
times- even for speeches he has given, which is close to illegal- credit has to
be given where credit is due.
The address the former President delivered on Wednesday in
Philadelphia was not well-focused and flitted from topic to topic. He missed a
few topics. It would have been impressive for the ex-President to explain the
threat threat President Trump poses to international stability with his
frequent attacks on allies and campaign to undermine the Transatlantic
Alliance. The danger Donald Trump poses to the air, oceans, consumers, workers
and others with his obsession with deregulating industry is a critical issue
Obama avoided.
But few people are interested in the former, the latter
never has much interested Obama, and there is a democracy to be sustained,
which the ex-President fully recognizes. Further, he invoked the word "Trump" eight times and in the past, both he and Joe Biden have done so sparingly. And he did get off a great line when
he stated
We know that he continues to do business with China because
he’s got a secret Chinese bank account. How is that possible? How is that
possible? A secret Chinese bank account. Listen, can you imagine if I had had a
secret Chinese bank account when I was running for reelection. You think Fox
News might have been a little concerned about that? They would’ve called me
Beijing Barry.
There is no certainty this speech and any others Barack
Obama deliver will help the Biden-Harris campaign. During the last presidential campaign, polls
showed Hillary Clinton leading Donald Trump in Pennsylvania and on election
eve, Mr. and Mrs. Obama were joined by Bruce Springsteen for a massive rally in
Philadelphia. The next day, Clinton narrowly lost in the critical state.
Overall, the speech was impressive and history usually does
not repeat itself. If it does this time, we're in for a lot of trouble in the
USA, and not only for the next four years.
On a positive note, Joe Biden may be invoking this only as a
campaign theme to assure voters that he cares about Americans, unlike his
opponent. Conceivably, though, he really believes that, as he said in Ohio on
October 12
We need to revive the spirit of bipartisanship in this
country. I know that sounds bizarre in light of where we are... There will be
no blue states or red states with me- it's one America... I'll work as hard for
those who voted against me as those who voted for me.
In a recent Yahoo/YouGov poll approximately half of
Republicans- before being asked about QAnon agreed that "top
Democrats" are involved in sex-trafficking rings and that the President is
"working to dismantle sex trafficking rings."
But it's not only rank-and-file Republicans who believe in
dangerous, far-right conspiracies. New York magazine reports "There will be 24
QAnon candidates on the federal ballot in November — 22 of them Republicans and
two independents." Some of them will win.
In October of 2016 then-House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy boasted "Everybody
thought Hillary Clinton was unbeatable, right? But we put together a Benghazi
special committee, a select committee. What are her numbers today? Her numbers
are dropping. Why? Because she's untrustable. But no one would have known any
of that had happened had we not fought."
Merrick Garland was nominated by President Obama in March
2016 election but Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, banking on the
possibility of a Republican winning the presidential race eight months hence,
would not consider the nomination. Amy Coney Barrett was selected by President
Trump two months before a presidential election, and McConnell is seeing to it
that she breezes through to approval, with few or no GOP defections.
And now Joe Biden himself is being targeted, dragging his
son through the muck and mire with an unsubstantiated charge because, well,
that's how Republicans win elections. A secret bank account held by the President in the third most powerful nation on earth? Not a problem, if the President is a Republican.
Biden should know better.
As Michael Grunwald explained in a 2012 book about the period following the election
of Barack Obama to the presidency, Joe
Biden says that during the transition, he was warned not to
expect any cooperation on many votes. “I spoke to seven different Republican
Senators, who said, `Joe, I’m not going to be able to help you on anything,’ he
recalls. His informants said McConnell had demanded unified resistance. “The
way it was characterized to me was: `For the next two years, we can’t let you
succeed in anything. That’s our ticket to coming back,’” Biden says.
The vice president says he hasn’t even told Obama who his
sources were, but Bob Bennett of Utah and Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania both
confirmed they had conversations with Biden along these lines.
As of December of 2017, 51% of Republicans believed Barack
Obama was born in Kenya. Rumor has it that the nomination (and election) of one GOP presidential candidate was fueled by charges that Obama was born abroad
and might be a Muslim.
With all that, we've learned in recent days that Biden has
drawn up a list of Republicans whom he's considering appointing to cabinet positions.
It's possible that Joe Biden realizes that with or without
Republicans in top positions in his Administration, and with or without appeals
to bipartisanship before or after the election, his presidency will be marred-
nay, characterized- by attacks from Republicans and a commitment from the
GOP to bring his presidency down. (That
is the real "on Day One," we often hear of.)
Hopefully, he does and the appeals to a bipartisanship
without principle is merely a campaign strategy. But if he does not realize
that, he is astonishingly naive and prospects for a successful presidency are
minimal at best.
It's helpful to put down your pro-Fauci flag (blue for Democrats, who support him) or anti-Fauci flag (red representing "Republican" or Soviet-era Russia, in which Vladimir Putin flourished). Once that is done, it becomes clear that this is a head fake by the President.
Trump continues on Fauci: "He's a nice guy. He's got a really bad arm. Not a good baseball thrower. But he's a nice guy. The only thing I say is: uh, he's a little bit, sometimes, not a team player."
Sunday's 60 Minutes included a revealing interview of the
infectious disease expert by a doctor on assignment to 60 Minutes. One segment
inadvertently threw much light on the claim Fauci
"sometimes (is) not a team player." From the CBS News website:
Earlier this month, the Trump campaign released a television
ad. It features what appears to be a glowing remark from Dr. Fauci on President
Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic.
Dr. Anthony Fauci in campaign ad: I can't imagine that
anybody could be doing more.
Dr. Anthony Fauci: Stunning.
Fauci says his words were taken out of context. But this
week the ad continued to run in key battleground states.
Dr. Anthony Fauci: I do not and nor will I ever, publicly
endorse any political candidate. And here I am, they're sticking me right in
the middle of a campaign ad. Which I thought was outrageous. I was referring to
something entirely different. I was referring to the grueling work of the task
force that, "God, we were knocking ourselves out seven days a week. I
don't think we could have possibly have done any more than that."
Dr. Jon LaPook: Did the steam start to come out of your
ears?
Dr. Anthony Fauci: No, it did, quite frankly. I got really
ticked off.
Dr. Fauci has become the most visible doctor in America, yet
he says his ability to communicate with the public is not always under his
control.
Dr. Jon LaPook: During this pandemic, has the White House
been controlling when you can speak with the media?
Dr. Anthony Fauci: You know, I think you'd have to be honest
and say yes. I certainly have not been allowed to go on many, many, many shows
that have asked for me.
The day after Fauci asserted that he would not endorse a presidential candidate, the
President slammed him as someone who has "been here for 500 years"
and
"People are tired of hearing Fauci and all these idiots
— these people, these people that have gotten it wrong," Trump said.
"Fauci’s a nice guy. He’s been here for 500 years. He called every one of
them wrong. And he’s like this wonderful guy, a wonderful sage telling us
how" to respond to the pandemic.
"If I listened to him, we’d have 500,000 deaths,"
Trump continued, adding seconds later, "If we listened to him, we’d have
700-800,000 deaths right now."
Donald Trump, despite strategically erring by emphasizing in
this campaign Covid-19 rather than street violence, is generally tactically
savvy. "Every time he goes on
television, there’s always a bomb, but there’s a bigger bomb if you fire
him," the President says and insults him by tweet(s). Fauci is in the federal government, de facto
reassurance to independent-minded voters that the Administration is on the
right path to ending the pandemic.
In July, Trump had told Sean Hannity that Fauci "is a nice man, but he’s made a lot of mistakes." And a White House official
listed the scientist's comments from months earlier with the statement “several White
House officials are concerned about the number of times Dr. Fauci has been
wrong on things.”
The next day, Dan Scavino, White House social media
director, deputy chief of staff for communications, and author of many of the
President's tweets, posted on Facebook a
cartoon ridiculing Fauci with public health warnings such as “Indefinite
lockdown!”, “Schools stay closed this fall!” and “Shut up and obey!” The eyes poked again, with little response.
Now Trump has ramped up the pressure for the director of the
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and coronavirus task
force member to keep his criticism to a minimum. The President's campaign
releases an ad taking out of context a comment made by Fauci. The latter
responds in the manner of "you mustn't do that, or else." And the ad rolls on.
Then Trump implies Fauci is an "idiot" whose
advice would have caused hundreds of thousands of death. And Fauci rolls on.
The pandemic is by far the most important issue of the
campaign and the motivating factor for the droves of elderly voters who have
shifted from Trump 2016 to Biden 2020.
Dr. Fauci is trusted by most Americans for the expertise he possesses
and concern he has demonstrated over the pandemic.
Yet, facing the most important election of our lifetimes with democracy and the rule of law on the line, Dr. Fauci boldly declares
himself neutral. There will be no endorsement. There will not be a resignation
accompanied by a statement that the President has not taken the pandemic
seriously, listened to experts within his own government, nor taken steps
necessary to protect the American people. There will be no resignation (nor
dismissal) at all. Fauci, it turns out, is very much a team player, country be
damned.
The President has Anthony Fauci right where he wants him.
Donald Trump ought to be blamed for exploiting this respected expert for all
he's worth politically while ignoring his scientific advice. But it takes two
people to get it done- one to do the manipulating, the other to be willfully
manipulated.
