Nate Silver, who is an excellent analyst of elections played by the rules, believes Donald Trump's chance of remaining President, presumably by winning an election, are less than 1 in 8:
Actually Trump's odds (12%) are quite close to the chances of catching an inside straight (9%), low but still well within the realm of normal things you see in any poker session, and not the much less likely thing you are describing (0.3%).— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 27, 2020
(Also, who plays draw poker anymore?) https://t.co/n37jGM982d
Unfortunately, a Supreme Court Justice would like a word with Silver.
This is chilling, from Justice Kavanaugh in the Wisconsin voting rights case:— Elie Honig (@eliehonig) October 27, 202
“If the apparent winner the morning after the election ends up losing due to late-arriving ballots, charges of a rigged election could explode.”
He’s down to steal this thing.
Again, he’s preparing to steal the election. https://t.co/zJDUbO0Vzs— Joshua Potash (@JoshuaPotash) October 27, 2020