Saturday, June 03, 2023

For Now, O.K. But Only For Now

Self-described conservative but very anti-Trump, former Republican U.S Representative- turned- Independent  has an opinion which is hard to disagree with.

Yes, I will, too.  But the issue is whether others will. And, the tweet below misses the point.

Virtually no one, if anyone at all, is calling for the President to be removed from office via the 25th Amendment. Moreover, the tweeter is not 80 years old (I assume) and not running for re-election as President of the United States of America. Visuals matter, far too much. And it's no accident that we periodically see something like this, Joe Biden as youthful, engaged, and a "man's man," which appeared less than two weeks before Election Day in 2022: 


President Roosevelt's confinement to a wheel chair was hidden from the public. President Kennedy's scoliosis was kept secret.  But media has changed dramatically in this country (and worldwide, aside from North Korea and a couple of other places) and a slip and fall becomes a hot item on social, even traditional, media.

Determined to vote for the incumbent President, you'd vote for Biden even if he appeared infirm approaching November of 2024. If dead set against him or a dedicated conservative, you'd vote for the challenger, whatever the incumbent's health or accomplishments. 

Yet there are not only many independent and/or undecided voters in the electorate, there are many who don't like either Biden or Donald Trump and wouldn't approve of whomever wins the GOP nomination. Biden's strength in current matchups against the likely candidate, Trump, reflects the huge advantage he currently holds among voters who don't like either individual.

The President can slip and fall (almost) all he wants now, seventeen months out from the presidential election. However, if he demonstrates a frailty, physical or otherwise, after Labor Day of next year, with the intense focus on the race, his advantage with the group which distastes both nominees would dissipate considerably. Moreover, there probably would be a drop in enthusiasm, reflected in both activism and turnout, among Democrats. And if either of these ensues, Joe Biden likely would become a one-term President.

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