Victory Less Elusive Than Far-Fetched

I'm not sure what this right-wing tweeter believes this snippet of an interview proves. However, she deserves credit for bringing it to the attention of the X audience because it is intriguing. It features an anti-Trump, pro-Iran war comedian questioning a center-left Democratic senator and former C.I.A. analyst.

Bill Maher presses Democrat Senator to explain why John Fetterman is the ONLY Democrat backing President Trump on Iran.

MAHER: “Is this really the case? There’s only one person in the whole party who thinks differently?”

“You all miraculously came to the exact same conclusion… pic.twitter.com/3uipZ2yOCE

— The Vigilant Fox 🦊 (@VigilantFox) March 28, 2026

In the video provided, bill Maher is seen tellling Michigan senator Elissa Slotkin

They did say many times, o.k., we found out that they were very close to the bomb I mean, that's what came out in negotiations, that they were bragging that they were, like, weeks away from having enought to make eleven bombs. To me, it's pretty clear.

Well, no, it wasn't because as noted in Scientific American

 “There was no evidence that Iran was close to a nuclear weapon,” says Jeffrey Lewis of the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies. His comment echoed those of other experts after the war’s start, as well as statements from International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Rafael Grossi at that time and in 2025 and last year’s “threat assessment” report by U.S. intelligence agencies.

According to an IAEA estimate, as of June 2025, Iran possessed 441 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium, where the percentage refers to the share of the isotope uranium 235 (U 235) found in the material. That would be enough for 10 nuclear weapons if the material could be enriched further to full 90 percent weapons-grade concentrations, according to the IAEA. That further enrichment would take a matter of weeks in a fully functioning Iranian nuclear complex, perhaps explaining the time line within Trump’s declaration.

That declaration was that Tehran "would have had a nuclear weapon within two weeks to four weeks and they would have used it" had the USA not struck Iran. Yet

That step alone doesn’t equal a bomb, however. And Iran’s main enrichment capabilities were “completely and totally obliterated,” according to Trump himself in June, after the U.S. bombed three underground Iranian facilities. The administration’s special envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff nonetheless claimed on March 3, after the start of the current war, that Iran had the capability to make 11 nuclear bombs. Trump administration officials reportedly failed to include nuclear technical experts in their negotiation teams with Iran prior to the war, adding to the uncertainty. If Iran really had rebuilt these facilities, that might have led—over months and not weeks—to the nation resuming its uranium enrichment, Lewis says. “But this is all ‘if,’ ‘maybe’ and ‘later,’” he adds.

As the Michigan senator, a highly successful politician, knows, this would have been too much to explain to a television audience. Nonetheless, she might have said something akin to "that claim about eleven bombs came from Trump's negotiator Steve Witkoff, who is only marginally more credible than the Liar-in-Chief himself and is contradicted by evidence." Instead, she responded

,,,. but until the Strait of Hormuz is open, you literally, you just can't say we won this war when another country has a veto over what ship goes in and out. So I don't think-

No matter what has happened or will happen, you literally can say we won this war, and Donald Trump will say it no matter what- even a nuclear conflagation- ensues.  A declaration that "we" won this war cannot be, must not be, the litmus test.

Nor will the USA- and Israel or the West generally- have "won" (whatever that means) this conflict simply if- probably when- the Strait of Hormuz eventually opens. It was open before the USA and Israel launched the assault upon Iran. What followed has been death and destruction on a massive scale. Civilian targets have been hit and in addition to the US 5th Fleet Service Center in Bahrain, a USA base in each of three Mideast countries- Qatar, Kuwait, and the United Arab Emirates- has been struck. These nations believed that hosting an American base would bring them added security, and now will question that judgement. Our credibility has taken a hit.

Additionally, the day after Maher's interview of Slotkin, Iran-backed Houthi rebels entered the war

claiming two missile launches at Israel. About 2,500 U.S. Marines arrived in the region....The Houthis' entry could further hurt blobal shipping if they again target vessels in the Bab el-Mandeb Straif off the Red Sea, through which about 12% of the world's trade typically passes.

This portends the arrival of more widespread terrorism in the MIddle East once this war ends. But, hey, once the Strait of Hormuz is open as it had been previously, the USA can declare "victory."  That appears to be the opinion of Senator Slotkin and probably of Bill Maher. More accurately:

:

Mearsheimer: We had assumed we were going to win a quick and decisive victory. Once we ended up in a long war, it's the Iranians who hold most of the cards.

There's nothing Trump can do to escalate that works to our advantage. We're stuck in a war that U.S. can't win. 2X pic.twitter.com/VKCQ8NOcOF

— Tymofiy Mylovanov (@Mylovanov) March 28, 2026

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