Please, Mr. Trump, No More Winning!

Sadly, Joseph Goebbels is not dead (metaphorically, that is). At :38 in a video on a David Pakman podcast, Anna Kelly, White House Principal Deputy Press Secretary, is asked on May 11 by Fox News a question ending in "What does President Trump say today abut these high energy prices"?  She responded

.... Well, look, thee's a ot of confusion now about the state of play with Iran. Let me be clear. Iran has been incredibly decimated mlitarily. their navy is at the bottom of the ocean. Their ballistic missiles are destroyed. Their production facilities are demolished. Now, they're being totally crippled economically by the weight of Operation Ecconomic Fury.

So the President is not in a  rush. He has all his cards at his disposal because he knows Iran is getting weaker and weaker by the day while the United States is getting  stronger and stronger.

Surely, President Trump does have all his cards at his disposal.  The probably for this regime, however, is that Trump has only his cards at his disposal. He does not hold all the cards, nor nearly so.

Iran is getting weaker. However, as The New York Times reported on May 12

The Trump administration’s public portrayal of a shattered Iranian military is sharply at odds with what U.S. intelligence agencies are telling policymakers behind closed doors, according to classified assessments from early this month that show Iran has regained access to most of its missile sites, launchers and underground facilities.

Most alarming to some senior officials is evidence that Iran has restored operational access to 30 of the 33 missile sites it maintains along the Strait of Hormuz, which could threaten American warships and oil tankers transiting the narrow waterway.

 People with knowledge of the assessments said they show — to varying degrees, depending on the level of damage incurred at the different sites — that the Iranians can use mobile launchers that are inside the sites to move missiles to other locations. In some cases they can launch missiles directly from launchpads that are part of the facilities. Only three of the missile sites along the strait remain totally inaccessible, according to the assessments.

Iran still fields about 70 percent of its mobile launchers across the country and has retained roughly 70 percent of its prewar missile stockpile, according to the assessments. That stockpile encompasses both ballistic missiles, which can target other nations in the region, and a smaller supply of cruise missiles, which can be used against shorter-range targets on land or at sea.

Military intelligence agencies have also reported, based on information from multiple collection streams including satellite imagery and other surveillance technologies, that Iran has regained access to roughly 90 percent of its underground missile storage and launch facilities nationwide, which are now assessed to be “partially or fully operational,” the people with knowledge of the assessments said

Kelly is not completely wrong, given that

The Joint assault on Iran by the United States and Israel inflicted considerable damage on Iran's defenses and damaged or destroyed many strategic sites around the country. Many of Iran's senior leaders have been killed and its economy is staggering under the pressures of the war, leaving questins about how long it can sustain its hard line on a negotiated end to the conflict and the halt on nearly all oil tanker traffic and other shiipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Yet, if Donald Trump is holding more cards than are the Iranians, it's news to the latter. Several days ago, Tehran delivered unto Washington via Pakistan a proposal which "included demands for a permanent end to the war on all fronts, compensation for war damages, an end to the U.S. Naval blockade, lifting of sanctions on Iran, and the end to a U.S. ban on Iranian oil sales."  Oh, and Iran would assume control over the Strait of Hormuz.

President Trump rejected the proposal outright, because surrender is not in the cards, as spokesperson Kelly would put it. (If Iran included a proposal which would include a significant boost to Trump's personal profile, now we're talking!). Although the Iranian demands were wildly unrealistic, they still reflect an apparent willingness to see the war through, at least for now.  Abject fear does not seem to have overcome the Iranians, who as with almost everyone is now expecting a military assault from the Trump Administration.

Donald Trump, a veteran of the real estate industry, believes in the zero sum game. He sees Iran getting weaker and might actually believe that means the USA is gaining. But consider that as the Times noted in late April

Before the war with Iran started, American military commanders redirected the U.S.S. Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group from the South China Sea to the Middle East. Since then, two Marine Expeditionary Units, each with about 2,200 Marines, have been sent to the Middle East from the Pacific. The Pentagon has also moved sophisticated air defenses from Asia to bolster protection against Iran’s drones and rockets.

As the USA has become embroiled in the Middle East, the nation has left the Asian theater largely undefended. And now Donald Trump has landed in Mainland China, where he will speak to, and hopefully not negotiate with, Xi Jinping.  Hopefully, President Trump will not do there what he has done in the Mideast to America's national interest.

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