Thursday, January 17, 2008

GOP Scenarios

Pat Buchanan and Joe Scarborough a few minutes ago on MSNBC agreed about the importance of the South Carolina Republican primary. The reasoning goes something like this: if Mike Huckabee loses in South Carolina on 1/19/06, it's hard to imagine him winning in Florida; then this (border state) Southerner moves into Super Tuesday after having lost in two southern states. If John McCain, whom polls suggest is leading in South Carolina at this moment(and stands to benefit from the veterans in this state, which purportedly has the highest concentration of veterans in the U.S.A.), loses, his money may drive up- and questions arise surrounding his second straight presidential primary loss in this pivotal state. Admittedly, victory in South Carolina is less critical for Mitt Romney, who is the favorite in the closed caucus being held the same day in Nevada, and for Rudy Giuliani, who is banking it all in Florida.

Another word about South Carolina- about the Democratic primary there, to be held on January 26, 2008, one week later than the Repub primary. The latter is an open primary, which will lead some Independents and Republicans to vote in the Republican primary. Most of those individuals probably would not have voted in a Democratic primary, featuring candidates of a very different ideological stripe. Still, some of them, especially Democrats, would have voted in the Democratic primary and, I suspect, most of them for John Edwards. These are votes he cannot afford to lose in a state in which he is, at least as of this moment, a prohibitive underdog.

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