Debacle

If this is what victory looks like, I'd hate to see defeat.

Marco Rubio was labeled "Little Marco" in 2016 by Donald Trump, who also called him "Mr. Meltdown" and "lightweight choker" before the Florida senator was dispatched from the presidential race

On Tuesday,June 2 Little Marco appeared on the Hilll for a budget request hearing and

"We're no longer conducting sustained strikes inside of Iran to degrade their military, because Epic Fury is over," Rubio told the House Foreign Affairs Committee, asserting that the US had secured victory….

"We define victory as destroying their defense industrial base, significantly reducing the number of missile launchers that they possess, significantly reducing their stockpile of drones," Rubio said.

"And we achieved all those, in addition to destroying what they had left of an air force and wiping out their entire conventional navy."

Grilled at the hearing by Democrat Cory Booker of New Jersey, the Secretary weirdly asserted "well, the war is over."

Yet, just this past week

Kuwait’s military said Iranian strikes that hit a terminal at its international airport killed at least one person and wounded 63 in the first deadly attack in the Gulf since a ceasefire on 8 April came into effect.

The US and Iran also exchanged fresh missile and drone strikes, further jeopardising efforts to secure a new ceasefire agreement between Washington and Tehran.

Donald Trump said in an interview released on Wednesday that talks with Iran were continuing and he was not looking to escalate, adding: “We don’t need boots on the ground now.”

He later claimed Iran was “pretty close” to signing a peace agreement with the US and “it could happen over the weekend”.

If President Trump appears to be looking for a way out of this debacle, looks here are not deceptive. Sixteen days ago, after Donald asked for a 30-day extension of the ceasefire reached in April, Brookings Institution senior fellow Robert Kagan wrote

As the Institute for the Study of War reports, Iran has been using the cease-fire period to “normalize” its control over the strait by “compelling oil-importing countries” to establish transit agreements with Tehran and charging fees on vessels from nations without such deals. According to Iranian officials, the new strait regime will give Iran’s strategic partners, such as Russia and China, priority and allow nations friendly to Iran, such as India and Pakistan, to negotiate their own transit agreements. Vessels associated with nations that Iran regards as an adversary will be denied access to the strait entirely.

Several nations, including South Korea, Turkey, and Iraq, are reportedly already negotiating at least temporary transit agreements. Now that Trump has made clear he has no intention of fighting to reopen the strait, the stampede to get good terms with Tehran will begin. All nations heavily dependent on energy from the Persian Gulf will want to cut their deal quickly to get the oil and gas and other commodities flowing and rescue their battered economy. Those nations currently allied with the United States and friendly to Israel will feel pressure to distance themselves and make their peace with Iran. The international sanctions against Iran will collapse, and even more money will pour into the country’s accounts as its newly central role in the global economy becomes normalized. By the end of 30 days, most of the world will have a stake in the new arrangement and will oppose any resumption of hostilities, even in the unlikely event that Trump wanted to go back to war…

The Iran war may end up as the single most devastating blow to Israel’s security in its brief history. On the present trajectory, Iran will emerge from the conflict many times stronger and more influential than it was before the war. It will exercise leverage with dozens of the richest nations in the world, all of which will have an acute interest in keeping Iran happy. They will be unlikely to take Israel’s side in any conflict that it has with Tehran or with its proxies in Lebanon and Gaza, because Iran will have the means to punish them if they do. Israel will emerge more isolated than it has been at any time in its history—and not least from its only reliable protector, the United States. When Trump turns his back on Israel, as he must do to implement this policy, MAGA will gladly follow. The bipartisan anti-Israel consensus in the United States will grow and harden.

Will Israel go gentle into this good night? That is the wild card that may disrupt the financial markets’ dreams of a new stability in the Gulf. A stronger, richer, more influential Iran will mean new life for Hamas and Hezbollah. It will mean the end of the Abraham Accords, as the Gulf States will have to make their own peace with Tehran so that their economies can survive. Trump says that Netanyahu “will do whatever I want him to do.” But can Israel stand by while Iran replaces the United States as the arbiter of power in the region?

When a Memorandum of Understanding- or whatever it will be or will be called- is finalized, Donald Trump will declare victory, perhaps characterizing the Iran war as the greatest America ever has fought. Trump will be his lying, corrupt self, Little Marco will still be a sniveling loser, and the Middle East will be more unstable and dangerous than it has been in a very long time.

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