Wednesday, November 09, 2016

Florida, Still South Of Georgia

"Everything that Democrats and pretty much anyone else thought they understood about politics was proven wrong this year," writes Politico's Edward-Isaac Dovere, "with a resounding exclamation mark Tuesday night."

Last Thursday, another Politico reporter demonstrated just how wrong common wisdom could be when he remarked

Hillary Clinton is besting Donald Trump by an historic 30-point margin among Florida Hispanics, according to a new bipartisan poll that indicates Latinos could play an outsized role in delivering the White House to a Democrat for the third election in a row.

Clinton’s 60 percent to 30 percent advantage over Trump with Florida Hispanics overall is fueled by outsized support from voters of Puerto Rican descent, who favor her 71 perccent to 19 percent, according to the survey of 800 likely Hispanic voters jointly conducted for Univision by Republican-leaning Tarrance Group and Democratic-leaning Bendixen & Amandi International....

“These Florida numbers are not only ominous for Donald Trump — they’re downright terrifying for Republicans nationwide,” said Fernand Amandi, Bendixen & Amandi’s pollster, who called Clinton’s 30-point margin “historic.”

“The share of the Hispanic vote is growing every election and this will be the third presidential election in Florida where Hispanics trend heavily against the GOP,” Amandi said. “And if that continues, it could turn Florida into the next California in future presidential elections, a blue anchor state.”

Five days later in Florida:  Donald J. Trump-  4,591,277 votes (49%)
                                           Hillary R. Clinton-  4,462,414 votes (48%)

It looks like it's going to be a few years, maybe a decade, maybe never, before Florida becomes the next California. Notwithstanding its diversity, Florida is still a southern state with a lot of white southerners. Or as Chris Hayes tweeted approximately 9:00 p.m. Eastern on Tuesday: "Racial polarization looking like not such a mathematically suicidal play for the GOP."

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1 comment:

Greg said...

We still can't depend on Florida!

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